Risk vs Reward: How to Make Better Decisions on the Golf Course
Every shot in golf is a risk-reward decision. The golfer who makes consistently good risk-reward decisions will score better than the golfer who hits the ball better but makes poor decisions. Understanding how to evaluate risk and reward is the foundation of good course management and the key to lower scores.
Key Takeaways
- •The downside of a bad decision in golf is almost always greater than the upside of a good one.
- •The mathematically correct decision is almost always the conservative one.
- •Never take greater risks after a bad shot to compensate -- make the best decision from the current position.
- •The risk is worth taking when the probability of success is high and the reward outweighs the cost.
How to calculate risk and reward
The risk-reward calculation has two components: the potential reward if the shot goes well, and the potential cost if it goes wrong. A shot with a potential reward of one shot saved and a potential cost of three shots lost is a bad risk. A shot with a potential reward of one shot saved and a potential cost of one shot lost may be worth taking.
The asymmetry of risk in golf
In golf, the downside of a bad decision is almost always greater than the upside of a good one. A birdie saves one shot. A penalty costs two shots. This asymmetry means that the mathematically correct decision is almost always the conservative one. The golfer who consistently takes risks is fighting against the mathematics of the game.
When the risk is worth taking
The risk is worth taking when the potential reward is significantly greater than the potential cost, when you have a high probability of success, and when the match situation demands it. Going for a par 5 in two from the fairway with a short iron is a good risk. Going for a par 5 in two from the rough with a long iron is almost never a good risk.
The sunk cost fallacy in golf
The sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to take greater risks after a bad shot in order to recover the lost ground. This is one of the most common and most expensive mistakes in amateur golf. The correct response to a bad shot is to make the best possible decision from the current position, not to attempt to compensate for the previous mistake.
Building a risk-reward framework
Before every shot, ask yourself three questions: what is the best realistic outcome if this shot goes well? What is the worst realistic outcome if it goes wrong? What is the probability of success? If the expected value of the shot -- the probability of success multiplied by the reward, minus the probability of failure multiplied by the cost -- is positive, the shot is worth attempting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How do I know if a shot is worth the risk?
Ask yourself: what is the worst realistic outcome if this shot goes wrong? If the worst outcome is significantly worse than the best outcome is good, the shot is not worth the risk.
Should I always play safe in golf?
No. The correct strategy is to make good risk-reward decisions. Sometimes the risk is worth taking. The key is to make a conscious, rational decision rather than an impulsive one.